Tracking Brexit shockwaves and navigating times of uncertainty

BREXIT and its impact

^{Another key moment in the CCB was the Brexit referendum, with the monthly Index reporting changes in consumer confidence in the run up to the vote, the impact of the decision, and the changes in sentiment during the following months.}

With robust monthly data, we are able to put peaks and troughs in consumer confidence into context. The Brexit example shows the immediate shockwaves that the Leave vote had on the Index, with GfK's Joe Staton, explaining in July 2016 that:

We’ve seen a very significant drop in confidence, as is clear from the fall in each of our key measures, with the biggest decrease occurring in the outlook for the general economic situation in the next 12 months (-19 points). However, the Index continues to remain at a relatively elevated level by historic standards."

Jumping ahead six months, to January 2017, the Index had crept up to -5 and another six months later in July 2017 confidence had taken a dip, falling back to the post-Brexit low of July 2016.

With constant change and upheaval the norm today, our expert commentary provides the direction that marketers and brands need to ensure that their messaging, pricing and promotion continue to be relevant – whatever the state of consumers’ confidence.

Staton explained how this decline fitted into the economic and political situation:

Consumer confidence across the UK has fallen to the level last seen in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote. The economic picture across the UK remains confusing and this mood is reflected in the Overall Index Score, which is down by five points. It’s the sharp drop in confidence about the UK’s general economy – both looking back one year and ahead one year – that is driving the fall."