Retail turnover 2023
Real turnover losses despite moderate growth
In addition to purchasing power, retail turnover also recorded growth in 2023. Analogous to purchasing power, retail turnover in the 27 EU member states rose by 5.5 percent. However, the nominal increase in turnover must be put into perspective against the backdrop of high consumer prices, which are resulting from the continuing rise in spending on fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), i.e. food and drugstore items. These rising prices and uncertainties led to a reluctance to spend on the part of consumers and thus also to real turnover losses.
In the respective national currencies, the growth rate was even higher at just under 8 percent. This illustrates the strong influence of exchange rate fluctuations and the dependence on international consumer prices. These effects are particularly noticeable in the Scandinavian countries. The Swedish retail sector, for example, recorded an increase of just under 3 percent and thus proved to be quite stable. Due to the less favorable exchange rate, however, a decline of almost 5 percent can be observed in euros.
The Swedish and Norwegian currencies have lost value against the euro. As a result, imported goods have become noticeably more expensive for Swedish and Norwegian consumers, which is having an impact on their spending. This is also reflected in the subdued propensity to consume that can generally be observed in Northern Europe. Even in local currency terms, the northern countries within the EU, including Finland and Sweden, but also Estonia and Germany, have the lowest growth rates.
Last year, economic expectations among consumers, retailers and businesses were highest in the countries of Southern and South-Eastern Europe. A positive trend was forecast for countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and the Iberian Peninsula, which actually happened with the increase in purchasing power. These countries also recorded the highest growth rates in the retail sector. In 2023, the retail sector achieved significant growth in countries such as Bulgaria (+18 percent), Romania (+14 percent) and Croatia (+14 percent). Growth rates in the retail sector of over 12 percent were also recorded in larger markets such as Spain and Poland.
At 8 percent, FMCG turnover growth was significantly higher than the growth rate of 3.1 percent in the non-food sector. A clear shift in consumer spending behavior can be observed here. Many Eastern European countries recorded the highest FMCG growth, albeit not quite as strong as in 2022, while turnover in Sweden and Norway actually declined.
In terms of total turnover, France (585 billion euros), Germany (555 billion euros) and Italy (362 billion euros) ranked first within the EU. Food accounted for the largest share of total turnover, followed by clothing, DIY products and healthcare products (cleaning and care). In Slovakia, the highest expenditure is made on food, which is due to the high food prices and high inflation in the past year. In Lithuania, on the other hand, only a comparatively small proportion is spent on food. Instead, Lithuanians are the frontrunners when it comes to spending on DIY items, followed by the inhabitants of Latvia and Estonia.
Apart from Poland, fashion tends to be more important in the Southern European nations and the Balkan states, as the shares for clothing, shoes and leather goods are highest here. In Finland, on the other hand, people spend the least on fashion items in retail compared to other countries.
retail turnover in the EU-27 in 2023
FMCG retail turnover in the EU-27 compared to 2022
